My Electoral Analysis - Guest Contributor
Are we out of touch? No, it’s the voters who are wrong [Insert Simpsons Meme] above. The following analysis is from my close friend, Hate Watch.
"What we saw in November 2024 was a much broader cross-demographic embrace of Trump. We saw people like some older, white people, former lifelong Republicans, vote against Trump and we saw people like younger Gen Z Latino men vote for Trump. Political analysts scratch their heads but the answer is simple: lower voter turnout, a more militant billionaire class and social psychology.
Part 1: The Turnout Problem Let's start with lower turnout. In 2020, President Biden campaigned on a platform of economic recovery in the face of Trump's blundering of the US economy commanded a voter turn out of 81,283,501 voters to Trump's 74,223,975. Compare this to the 2024 election with Harris (as of now) getting 70,383,060 votes and Trump winning 74,312,538. That means that Harris saw a drop of about 11 million votes from her predecessor. For perspective, that is the almost the same as the entire population of Pennsylvania voting for Democrats in 2020 but not showing up in 2024. Now, both Harris and Trump will pick up more votes as California finishes counting their votes, but Harris will still see a Dem voter drop close to 10 million votes and Trump may just only reach past 75 million votes.
The reason for the drop in turnout is straightforward as evidenced by interviews and polls conducted by voters who did not show up. The biggest reason they didn't show up was the lack of a strong simple economic message pushed by Harris. Early in the campaign she had backed off promises of Medicare for All, more aggressive student loan forgiveness, and lowering taxes on the Middle and Working class. The second biggest drop in voter turn out was the Israeli government-led genocide in Gaza and the looming fear of another protracted Mideastern war. While the actual people who sat out the election due to disgust at US financing of a genocide is probably pretty low outside of Michigan, many young Americans are tired of seemingly endless Mideastern wars. Biden/Harris' refusal to assure Americans that we would not have another Iraq or Afghanistan War by de-escalating tensions in the Mideast, and Harris' bizarre attempt to campaign with people like Dick Cheney and Laura Bush was alienating to Gen Z and Millennial Americans - a core Democratic bloc - who don't want to live in a perpetual 9/11 loop. The voter turnout drop is probably the biggest factor in why the election was lost. The silver lining is that based on the numbers (74 million Trump voters in 2020 versus 74 million Trump voters in 2024) means that even though Trump won the election, his actual base of supporters is continuing to decline or at best, remains close to the same.
Part II: The Multibillionaire Problem: In 2008, the richest man in the world was either Bill Gates or Warren Buffet both at around $50-60 billion. Now richest man in the world is Elon Musk at around $200-250 billion, followed by Jeff Bezos at $200 billion. I don't know about you but I don't know very many working people who's net worth increased by 4-5x in the past 16 years. That kind of power means a few individuals control more of the market and more of the government (in the form of lobbying and contracts) than ever in modern history. Billionaires tipped the scales of democracy. Elon Musk controls Twitter (X), Tesla, Space X and Starlink. Bezos owns Amazon, Twitch, the Washington Post and Blue Origin. A handful of multi-billionaires control what we see, what we hear in addition to those precious government contracts. In the weeks before the election, we saw Bezos force the Washington Post to withhold its endorsement of Harris to appease Trump for more lucrative government contracts. Bezos also manipulated the Twitch algorithm to push a lot of right-wing streamers’ interactions. We saw Musk alter the Twitter (X) algorithm change to boost favorable interactions with post from Trump, Joe Rogan and of course, Elon Musk, himself. Musk used his leverage to push for both Biden and Trump to place massive tariffs on Chinese EVs in order to protect Testa from competition. Musk also knows that his control of Starlink and Space X is heavily reliant on government contracts to keep operating at optimal profits. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, and Larry Ellison all have similar entanglements with government and market monopolies. The multi-billionaires came out in full force and through abusing our data, flooding the social media with half-truths, disinformation and curated algorithms, and superPACs, they were able to create a favorable environment for Trump.
Part III: The Trump Supporter Psychological Profile: The profile of a Trump supporter back in the 2016 election was either a reluctant traditional Republican voter or a racist bigot, typically religious social conservatives, older voters, rural voters, people who come Republican leaning families, etc... Though, as we've gotten know Trump over the years through his cons, his blatant, comical hypocrisy, and his uncanny ability to make boldfaced lies. His appeal has turned off and turned on certain people. This has both turned off some of the reluctant traditional Republican voters who have reached their limit of stomaching Trump's bullshit, but also turned on non-traditional voters who are have deep seated psychological problems in how they treat people or perceive reality (in other words, "the sociopath" and "the anti-science people").
In this group are people who have irrational hatred toward people whom they know little about, who are easy targets because they are more socially marginalized than we are, or who are a great distraction from one's own self-induced problems. These are your racists, homophobes, transphobes, hyper-NIMBYs (Not In my Backyard), and misogynists. Trump has an uncanny ability to speak to anyone across any demographic, and make a certain group of them want to punch down. "It's not my fault my life is shitty, it's the hypothetical-transwoman-who-wants-to-play-in-women's-sports fault." Another similar strain of "sociopaths" are the swindlers and con-artists. Like bigots, they struggle with interacting with people in a respectful or fair-manner. These are your George Santos, Lauren Boebert, and Mike Lindell-types. They are usually people who ignore "Golden Rules." They lie, cheat or steal to achieve an objective. Finally, you have "the anti-science people." These are people who are either truly ignorant of how science works or are cynically trying to discredit science through some selfish ends (See above). They are your anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers and conspiracy theorists. These are your RFK Jrs, Joe Rogans, Jordan Petersons, and Jenny McCarthies.
These people exist across all demographics and all know people like this in our own lives. I think of the girl in high school who's had two abortions and posts religious "pro-life" propaganda . Or, the guy who has an irrational hatred of gay people, only to secretly be gay themselves. Or, the douchebro who slips in sedatives into women's drinks to take advantage of them. Or the doctor who makes up fake medical charts to defraud Medicare. The racist living on general relief and food stamps who complains about "welfare queens". In the same way, young ambitious girls can look at Kamala Harris and see themselves in her, a budding sociopath can look at Donald Trump and see themselves in him. And this directly explains two things. One, Trump's cross-demographic appeal. Again, sociopaths and anti-science people exist across all demographics. Two, why polls repeatedly underestimate Donald Trump's strength. Polls don't psychologically profile people. Polls look at demographics and based on that, extrapolate party strength. Trying to create self-reporting polls that pick up on these social personality characteristic are very difficult. That's one major reasons polls don't pick up hidden Trump voters. Now this is not to say that all Trump voters or all Republicans are bigots and con-artists. There are plenty of people who voted for Trump based on misinformation, partisan inertia from their families, and single-issue voters. What this does explain is why Trump has a unique cross-demographic appeal and why certain people who usually don't vote, care about politics or have this cult like attract to Trump come out of the wood work when he is running.
Unlike 2016, the results of this election did not surprise me. People don't want forever wars. People want simple economic benefits that they can touch, see, and feel in their day-to-day lives. Multibillionaires pick and choose our candidates, pick and choose our policies and dictate what and how we see on your media and socials. Finally, sociopaths exist in each and every gender, religious, and racial group, they tend to be attracted to his personality and polls don't pick those people up. I wish could say we can do better next time, but there is a good chance there won't be a next time.
King David always appreciates guest contributors! Hopefully I’ll end up in the same work camp or company town as my friend above. Before you go, there’s a couple books that really helped me understand this narrative. I would encourage you to read them. This blog makes a small amount of money through Amazon purchases, but please consider buying from your local bookstore or borrowing from your public library:
Parable of the Sower/Parable of the Talents - Octavia Butler
The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War - Jeff Sharlet
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